Craig Kimbrel, what kind of career do you see him having?

Question

He's only 25 and has already put up 40+ saves his first 2 years of playing. Which closers can you compare him to? Over the past 20 years, MLB has had some great closers in Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, Mo Rivera, etc. Do you see him having a career similar like those guys?

We've also seen some closers start out dominant, but then fade once they reached about 30. Eric Gagne and Francisco Rodriguez come to mind.

I personally, think 400+ saves in his career is a VERY realistic shot if he can learn to control his slider. He probably will start losing velocity on his 4 seam fastball once he starts hitting 30, so control will be a even bigger goal for him he wants to keep closing throughout his 30's. What do you think?

Answer 1

If he stays healthy, he could have a career comparable to Wagner's, maybe even better. However like you said since he relies so much on his blazing fastball that he could flame out in a few years like K-Rod did.

Answer 2

Right. Assuming no arm trouble he could go above Billy Wagner, and probably above Lee Smith (478).



Sure he could flame out, but all the ones you mentioned, plus Smith, Eckersley etc, did pitch more than 15 years at top efficiency. That's more or less the requirement to get to the top as a closer, so without longevity his career would just level off in comparison to others.



Another thing here is that the Braves will probably enter the post season this year and a few more years, so that would cement the legacy. Let's hope the Braves can hold onto him in free agency, 2017, I think you might see him on the way to 500 saves.



I do agree with everything you say. Like Rodriguez, still active, still a serviceable reliever, but without a 96 mph fastball to back up is stuff, will not add many

Answer 3

Billy Wagner is a very good comparable. With health, he could be one of the best. When his velocity drops off, he'll have to rely more heavily on that monster slider, and learn to control it better. Until then, he has two unhittable pitches.

Answer 4

He will be out of the league by 2017.