Baseball Fans, Isn't This Unfair?

Question

There's 2 ways to make the playoffs in baseball: finish with the best non-divisional winner record in your league, or, win your division.

All teams in the AL have a 1 in 14 chance on winning the wild card.

All teams in the NL have a 1 in 16 chance of winning the wild card.

That minor difference in odds is bad enough, but the following is just moronic...

If you're an AL West team, which has only 4 teams, you have a 1 in 4 chance of winning the division.

If you're an NL Central team, which has 6, you have a 1 in SIX chance of winning your division.

Now let's compound those two stats into the following...

If you're the Seattle Mariners, to make the playoffs you have to finish with a better record than THREE other teams...and, if you fail to, you still can make it if you have the best record of the TEN other non-divisional winning AL teams.

If you're the St.Louis Cardinals, however, you have to finish with a better record that FIVE other teams to win your division, and if you fail to, you then have to have the best non-divisional winning NL record amongst TWELVE other teams.

To summarize...

Mariners have to beat three teams, and then if they fail to, beat 10.

Cardinals have to beat five, and if they fail to, beat 12.

This is the most systemically unfair thing in baseball.

Why is the MLB set up in a way that a 3rd grader realizes is unfair?

Answer 1

wow never thought about that. that is unfair

Answer 2

The flaw in your thinking is that by saying "all teams in the NL have a 1 in 16 chance of winning a wild card", this assumes that all teams are equal and it's just a roll of the dice, basically.



Same with saying that all AL West teams have a 1-in-4 shot at the division.



In a 162 game schedule, the best teams are going to win their divisions, and the team with the next best record will be the wildcard.



Are there some years where a 3rd place team in one division might be better than the first place team in another division? Yes. But the rules are the same for everyone. Either win your division (however strong or weak that division may be) or have the next best record in the league to get the wildcard.



Talent is not equally distributed among all teams. It's not even close to being equally distributed among all teams. That's why the odds are better for some teams to make the playoffs than for other teams. it has nothing to do with how many teams are in any one division or league.

Answer 3

well, i dont see it as unfair for the following reason : it doesn't matter if seatle get in the playoffs or not to the cardianals. They are not competing against each other for the same playoff spot. St.Louis is competting with 5 other teams in their division, and so are each of those five. They all have the same odds of being divisional winner (1 out of 6) regardless of how seatle does. and they in the nl have the same chance for wild card (1 out of 13) if they don't make win thier divison. See what I am saying ? Regardless of who goes from the al, each team in the nl has the same chance as every other team in the nl at the start of the year. No matter what happens, seatle cann't take the cardinals playoff spot

Answer 4

I get what you are saying, but I am not going to look into it too much just because the Wild Card can win, the Marlins have won the WS twice from the Wild Card.. it may be unfair with the difference in divisions and leagues, but you can't look that far into it, its just a part of the way its set up, and at least they have a 1 game playoff if teams are tied



Hockey is set up great, top 8 teams from East and the West make the post-season.. However they have "tie-breakers" (what are these things?) l



1. Wins (Hockey has overtime losses and shootouts, each of which you get a point for, but no points for a regulation loss)

2. Head-to-Head

3. Goals for Goals Against Differential...



The Panthers tied with Montreal in record but lost to them head to head, while having the 3rd tie breaker go Florida's way. 1 Game playoff is a serious upside to baseball

Answer 5

It's set up that way because there has to be an even number of teams in each league, so that during non-interleague play (which is like almost the whole season as everyone knows) every team has another team to play. That's the explanation, so as long as there are 30 teams in teh MLB, there'll have to be uneven leagues and thus uneven divisions.



Also your mathematical analysis of fairness works in a vacuum, or as a theory, but in reality, the cubs have a MUCH greater odds of winning their division than the Athletics this year simply becuase they are the best team in their division and the A's aren't! So this year, the odds are in their favor because of the talent on their squad. Those odds, set up by talent, are always changing. So I would argue that the MLB is quite fair (at least in reagard to what you're talking about, forgetting the whole salary cap, payroll thing, those kinds of issues).



But I would defintely agree that if the MLB ever lost or gained two franchises, they would have to realign so that both leagues were equal in number (again they would have to have a number of teams divisible by 3 in each league for the divisions to be equal on top of that, and the leagues to have an even number of teams, which is pretty much impossible).

Answer 6

Well, the better teams are going to win their respective division title.



Let's say the D'backs win the NL West. Now let's say the Cubs and Cardinals are neck and neck for the NL Central Championship. The D'backs may have a better chance of winning their division (1 in 5), but they are going to face the best teams in the other divisions no matter what. Winning the NL Central is a 1 in 6 chance. Even if the 2nd best team in the NL Central is better than the D'backs, they still aren't better than the team that beat them for the NL Central title.



Regardless of the odds, the better teams will beat the worse teams.

Answer 7

Who said things are always fair. Didn't cardinals win the world series with only 84 wins a couple of years ago, some would say that it is unfair for a team barely over .500 to be in the playoffs when there are always teams with better records left home.

Answer 8

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Answer 9

It may seem unfair but you forgot to mention that the National League teams get the play the Pirates every year.

Answer 10

i have never thought about it that way...



baseball has and never will be unfair.. tough game but so are other sports. There are a lot of things in life that are unfair which is so awesome when the teams that have the odds against them do well.. (which is ... rare but still)

Answer 11

one of the reason i hate bud selig



although i like how it has created a hate for each other and big rivalries, the fairest way to do it is 2 leagues, top 4 teams make it

Answer 12

The NBA is the worst of them all, a team can be 22.5 games back and still make the playoffs. Its a joke.

Answer 13

Yes, it is unfair. But there's another huge problem---the schedule. There is no balance to it.

Answer 14

sports are sports, it's tough to make them fool proof. but i agree. that is tough if your the cardinals or brewers or whoever. you make a really good point.

Answer 15

What are you doing? Don't cry! There's no crying in baseball!